Simulation Of A Queuing System And What Is A Probability Of

Simulation and Modeling

1. Perform manual (by hand) simulation.
2. Perform simple Monte-Carlo simulation in a spreadsheet environment.
• Some baby examples
• Fun with Calculus
• Simulation of a Queuing System
• Simulating the News Dealer`s Problem
• What is a probability of tossing coin & getting Tails?
• A fair coin has 50-50 chance of Heads or Tails.
• Do you think that your coin is fair?
• What is the true probability of getting Tails for your coin?
• How would you go about finding this out?

• To find the actual probability of getting Tails for your coin, we can
• Toss coin repeatedly many times.
• Record the number of Tails, T and the number of experiments (tosses) performed, N.

Task: each individually complete 10 tosses, re-estimating P after each toss.
• Whose coin is fair?
• How confident are you in your estimate of P?
• Is 10 tosses enough to tell?
• How many tosses is enough?
• Can you do 1,000,000 tosses by hand?
• We just used simulation by hand to find P.

Simulation By Hand: The Buffon Needle Problem

1. What is the average inter-arrival time?

2. What is the arrival rate?

3. What is the average doctor`s service time?

4. What is the doctor service rate?

5. What is the average time a patient spends in the doctor`s office from the arrival till leaving?

6. How many number of patients in the doctor`s office at any given time?